Within-group estimators for unbalanced-panel data regression model of the open unemployment rate data in east kalimantan province

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit hard the Indonesian economy. Many businesses had to close because they could not cover operational costs, and many workers were laid off creating an unemployment crisis. Unemployment causes people's productivity and income to decrease, leading to poverty and other social problems, making it a crucial problem and great concern for the nation. Economic conditions during this pandemic have also provided an unusual pattern in economic data, in which outliers may occur, leading to biased parameter estimation results. For that reason, it is necessary to deal with outliers in research data appropriately. This study aims to find within-group estimators for unbalanced panel data regression model of the Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) in East Kalimantan Province and the factors that influence it. The method used is the within transformation with mean centering and median centering processing methods. The results of this study may provide advice on factors that can increase and decrease the OUR of East Kalimantan Province. The results show that the best model for estimating OUR data in East Kalimantan Province is the within-transformation estimation method using median centering. According to the best model, the Human Development Index (HDI) and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) are two factors that influence the OUR of East Kalimantan Province (GRDP). © 2023, International Association of Engineers. All rights reserved.

Examination of the Effects of COVID-19 on Happiness in Different Geographical Regions with Piecewise Linear Panel Data Models

The COVID-19 pandemic has recently caused the loss of millions of lives, and billions of others have been deeply affected. This crisis has changed the way people live, think about life, and perceive happiness. The aim of this study is to reveal differences between geographical regions by investigating the effect of the happiness variable on different countries during the international COVID-19 pandemic. The primary purpose is to demonstrate how such a pandemic may affect different countries in terms of happiness at the individual level and to identify possible strategies for the future. With this aim, both static and dynamic panel data models were used while applying fixed effects, random effects, and the generalized method of moments (GMM). A basic assumption in panel data models is that the coefficients do not change over time. This assumption is unlikely to hold, however, especially during major devastating events like COVID-19. Therefore, the piecewise linear panel data model was applied in this study. As a result of empirical analysis, pre- and post-COVID differences were seen between different geographical regions. Based on analysis conducted for three distinct geographical regions with piecewise linear models, it was determined that the piecewise random effects model was appropriate for European and Central Asian countries, the piecewise FGLS model for Latin American and Caribbean countries, and the piecewise linear GMM model for South Asian countries. According to the results, there are many variables that affect happiness, which vary according to different geographical conditions and societies with different cultural values.

Effect of Remittance Inflows on External Debt in Developing Countries

This paper analyzes the effect of remittance inflows on external debt in developing countries, by identifying international reserves as a potential transmission channel. Using panel data over the period 1970–2017 and covering 50 low-and middle-income countries worldwide, we find a positive and significant effect of remittance inflows on the external debt-to-GDP ratio. We also find a negative and significant effect of international reserves on external debt. After controlling for international reserves, the effect of remittance inflows on external debt increases;it remains positive and significant. The results suggest that the role of international reserves as a self-insurance mechanism, and the Dutch disease effect related to remittance inflows are at play. In addition, we find negative and significant effects of economic growth and savings-investment gap on external debt. We also find positive and significant effects of the nominal exchange rate and the United States lending interest rate on external debt. We discuss the policy implications of these findings, while highlighting factors that policymakers should focus on for containing external debt in developing countries in the post-COVID-19.

Structural Breaks in Interactive Effects Panels and the Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19

Dealing with structural breaks is an essential step in most empirical economic research. This is particularly true in panel data comprised of many cross-sectional units, which are all affected by major events. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected most sectors of the global economy;however, its impact on stock markets is still unclear. Most markets seem to have recovered while the pandemic is ongoing, suggesting that the relationship between stock returns and COVID-19 has been subject to structural break. It is therefore important to know if a structural break has occurred and, if it has, to infer the date of the break. Motivated by this last observation, the present article develops a new break detection toolbox that is applicable to different sized panels, easy to implement and robust to general forms of unobserved heterogeneity. The toolbox, which is the first of its kind, includes a structural change test, a break date estimator, and a break date confidence interval. Application to a panel covering 61 countries from January 3 to September 25, 2020, leads to the detection of a structural break that is dated to the first week of April. The effect of COVID-19 is negative before the break and zero thereafter, implying that while markets did react, the reaction was short-lived. A possible explanation is the quantitative easing programs announced by central banks all over the world in the second half of March.

Public Attitudes to Immigration in the Aftermath of COVID-19: Little Change in Policy Preferences, Big Drops in Issue Salience: IMR

How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected public attitudes toward immigration? Long-term evidence in Europe and the United States suggests attitudes to immigration are relatively stable and, in some cases, becoming more favorable with high volatility instead of the perceived importance of the issue. However, theoretically a global pandemic could exacerbate people's fears of outsiders or that migration may contribute to the disease. By contrast, attitudes could remain stable if their distal drivers prove to be robust enough to withstand the shock of COVID-19. We draw from Eurobarometer data from 2014 to 2021 across 28 European countries, weekly national survey data during the outbreak from the United States and individual panel data from the United Kingdom and Germany to find little systematic change in immigration preferences and no country-level correlation between the observed changes and the outbreak's severity. Instead, the perceived importance of immigration has consistently and significantly decreased. These findings suggest that, if COVID-19 is to have an impact on attitudes to migration, it is likely to emerge via longer-term means, such as early-life socialization and value change, rather than reactions to the immediate pandemic shock.

Global Uncertainty and Economic Growth - Evidence from Pandemic Periods

This paper investigates whether global uncertainty predicts economic growth rates using a global sample of 136 countries. We use the panel regression model and find strong evidence that global uncertainty negatively predicts the economic growth rate. Further, the negative impact of global uncertainty on economic growth rates is amplified during pandemic periods versus non-pandemic periods. Our main findings hold after a range of robustness tests.

Assessing the Effect of the U.S. Vaccination Program on the Coronavirus Positivity Rate With a Multivariate Framework.

The factors influencing the incidence of COVID-19, including the impact of the vaccination programs, have been studied in the literature. Most studies focus on one or two factors, without considering their interactions, which is not enough to assess a vaccination program in a statistically robust manner. We examine the impact of the U.S. vaccination program on the SARS-CoV-2 positivity rate while simultaneously considering a large number of factors involved in the spread of the virus and the feedbacks among them. We consider the effects of the following sets of factors: socioeconomic factors, public policy factors, environmental factors, and non-observable factors. A time series Error Correction Model (ECM) was used to estimate the impact of the vaccination program at the national level on the positivity rate. Additionally, state-level ECMs with panel data were combined with machine learning techniques to assess the impact of the program and identify relevant factors to build the best-fitting models. We find that the vaccination program reduced the virus positivity rate. However, the program was partially undermined by a feedback loop in which increased vaccination led to increased mobility. Although some external factors reduced the positivity rate, the emergence of new variants increased the positivity rate. The positivity rate was associated with several forces acting simultaneously in opposite directions such as the number of vaccine doses administered and mobility. The existence of complex interactions, between the factors studied, implies that there is a need to combine different public policies to strengthen the impact of the vaccination program.

The role of heritage sites and other influential factors in domestic tourism inflow to Australian states: a gravity model approach

Domestic tourism plays a crucial role in the Australian economy, generating revenue, creating employment opportunities, fostering cultural identity, and facilitating tourism growth and development. The remote regions of Australia are particularly reliant on domestic inbound tourism to stimulate their local economies. This study investigates the influence of heritage sites and various factors on domestic tourism inflows to eight states in the Australia between 1998-2021. The gravity method and random effect model are employed for the empirical analysis. The results indicate that the macro determinants, including population of origin state, gross state product per capita, infrastructural development, shared border between states, and the number of heritage sites, have significant and positive impact on domestic tourism inflow. Conversely, the consumer price index, distance, and pandemic outbreak have a negative influence on domestic tourism inflow. These findings hold important practical implications. Given Australia's geographical remoteness, promoting domestic tourism becomes imperative to boost the tourism industry and local economies. Therefore, it is recommended that authorities prioritize domestic tourism flows and invest in infrastructure, preserve heritage sites, stabilize prices, implement effective marketing strategies, and respond swiftly to public emergencies such as the Covid-19 pandemic.

Impact of Government Response to COVID-19 on the Role of GVC and Transportation*

Purpose - study aims to investigate the relationships between global value chain (GVC)-and transportation-related determinants and economic performance. Also, moderating effects of COVID-19 on the relationships are theoretically and empirically discussed. A limitation of previous studies includes their over-reliance on the opportunities of GVC participation and larger transportation. This study represents the challenges associated with them. Also, it shows how GVC and logistics can be difficult in case of a market fluctuation such as COVID-19.Design/methodology - The sample for this study includes 828 observations from 138 countries. A semi-panel data set has been used. Six observations for each country are used to empirically test the hypotheses and a Two-way cluster model is conducted.Findings - It is confirmed that GVC forward participation contributes more than the backward participation to enhance performance. Transportation infrastructure is critical, but large scales of marine and air transportations are not positive in terms of economic performance. Stricter government response to COVID-19 negatively moderates economic performance by GVC backward participation and transportation infrastructure.Originality/value - The spread of COVID-19 is causing a severe collapse of GVC and transportation. This study empirically verifies the moderating effects of the government stringency on GVC and transportation. Previous studies usually discuss a positive impact of GVC and transportation size on economic performance. However, this study aims to show various challenges behind GVC participation and large scale transportation.

Energy retrofitting of firms after a natural disaster: A ‘build back better' strategy

In 2012, an earthquake struck one of Italy's most productive and dynamic areas, the Emilia-Romagna region. Just as policy makers are today considering green and climate-conscious investments to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2012, the regional government granted specific energy retrofitting contributions to manufacturing and service firms affected by the seismic event. Through a panel data analysis, we evaluate the impact of such energy policy measures on firm-level labour productivity to assess the presence of non-zero multipliers. We find that energy retrofitting through regional aids positively affected firms' labour productivity. We discuss the energy and economic policy implications of such intervention in the current framework of fiscal recovery packages.

The impact of military expenditures on out of pocket healthcare payments: international evidence based on a dynamic panel data analysis

PurposeThe empirical analysis dealt in this paper emphasizes on the impact of military expenditures on out of pocket (OOP) healthcare payments. A sizeable body of defence economics literature has investigated the trade-off between military and public health expenditure, by testing the crowding-out or growth-stimulating hypothesis;does military expenditure scaling up crowd-out or promote governmental resources for social and welfare programs, including also state health financing?Design/methodology/approachIn this study, panel data from 2000 to 2018 for 129 countries is used to examine the impact of military expenditure on OOP healthcare payments. The dataset of countries is categorized into four income-groups based on World Bank's income-group classification. Dynamic panel data methodology is applied to meet study objectives.FindingsThe findings of this study indicate that military expenditure positively affects OOP payments in all the selected groups of countries, strongly supporting in this way the crowding-out hypothesis whereby increased military expenditure reduces the public financing on health. Study econometric results are robust since different and alternative changes in specifications and samples are applied in our analysis.Practical implicationsUnder the economic downturn backdrop for several economies in the previous decade and on the foreground of a potential limited governmental fiscal space related to the Covid-19 pandemic adverse economic effects, this study provides evidence that policy-makers have to adjust their government policy initiatives and prioritize Universal Health Coverage objectives. Consequently, the findings of this study reflect the necessity of governments as far as possible to moderate military expenditures and increase public financing on health in order to strengthen health care systems efficiency against households OOP spending for necessary healthcare utilization.Originality/valueDespite the fact that a sizeable body of defence economics literature has extensively examined the impact of military spending on total and public health expenditures, nevertheless to the best of our knowledge there is no empirical evidence of any direct effect of national defence spending on the main private financing component of health systems globally;the OOP healthcare payments.

Uneven domestic tourism demand in times of pandemic

This study investigates the short-run impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of domestic overnight stays at the regional level in the summer season 2020. Official data for 65 regions in four countries are used for the analysis (Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany and Switzerland). Dynamic panel data models are employed to estimate a tourism demand equation (real GDP and price fluctuations) augmented by average temperatures. Estimation results reveal that domestic overnight stays evolve unevenly in the first summer after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The short-run effects show that the number of domestic overnight stays in densely populated regions decreases by 27% in July as well as in August 2020, in comparison with the same months in previous years, ceteris paribus. To the contrary, there is a surge of 27 and 10%, respectively, for sparsely populated areas in the same months.JEL: Z3, R11 and R12.

Investigation on the relationship between the number of coronavirus disease 2019 cases at the beginning of the epidemic and the decrease of PM2.5 in Hubei, China: The role of temperature changes

In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, the Chinese government implemented blockade measures in Hubei, which largely affected the emission of pollutants. This work is aimed to explore the effects of epidemics on pollutants at different temperatures in Hubei, China. We applied for a panel nonlinear model with autonomous search thresholds to explore this, using daily average temperature as a threshold variable, and PM2.5 set as the explained variable, and the cumulative number of confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 cases set as the explanatory variable. An empirical analysis was conducted by running the proposed model and using nine cities in China most impacted by the pandemic. The results show that there was a non-linear negative relationship between the cumulative number of confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 cases and PM2.5. A more detailed non-linear relationship between the two was uncovered by the proposed panel threshold regression model. When the temperature crosses the threshold value (12.5 degrees C and 20.5 degrees C) in sequence, the estimated value was -0.0688, -0.0934, and -0.1520 in that order. This means that this negative non-linear relationship increased with increasing temperature. This work helps to explore the effect of coronavirus disease 2019 on pollutions at different temperatures and provides a methodological reference to study their nonlinear relationship.

How do the stay-at-home (SAH) orders affect air quality? Evidence from the northeastern USA.

This paper examines whether the SAH orders, implemented in the USA from mid-March to late May 2020, improved air quality in the northeastern states. The estimates are based on panel data from the Environmental Protection Agency and an identification strategy that exploits the exogenous variation in the timing of the SAH orders. We find that the SAH orders reduced the concentrations of the air pollutants nitrogen dioxide ( NO 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO), whose dominant source is motor vehicle emissions, by approximately 24% and 13%, respectively. The effects were larger for areas of high population density and areas near major roads. We also find that the reductions got smaller, and air pollution gradually approached normal levels, after the orders were lifted. This suggests that the air quality improvements were temporary.

Reported shocks, households' resilience and local food commercialization in Thailand

PurposeThe authors examine the factors affecting households' resilience capacities and the impacts of these capacities on household consumption and crop commercialization.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use panel data of 1,648 households from Thailand collected in three years, 2010, 2013 and 2016. The authors employ an econometric model with an instrumental variable approach to address endogenous issues.FindingsThe study results show that the experience of shocks in previous years positively correlates with households' savings per capita and income diversification. Further, a better absorptive capacity in the form of better savings and a better adaptive capacity in the form of higher income diversification have a significant and positive influence on household expenditure per capita and crop commercialization.Practical implicationsDevelopment policies and programs aiming to improve income, increase savings and provide income diversification opportunities are strongly recommended.Originality/valueThe authors provide empirical evidence on the determinants of resilience strategies and their impacts on local food commercialization from a country in the middle-income group.

Household Savings and Negative Interest Rates

This paper analyses determinants of household savings in a model based on an extension of the disequilibrium savings theory. These extensions follow from the life-cycle, permanent-income and Ricardian-equivalence theories. Based on panel data of 20 countries from the period 2000–2020, fixed-effect least squares estimation procedures are used. The analysis provides evidence that negative interest rates lead to a statistically and economic significant increase in savings. This implies that stimulating household consumption with a monetary policy of negative interest rates is counter-productive. The positive effect of income uncertainty and lagged saving rates gets smaller for negative interest rates, weakening the support for the disequilibrium-savings theory. Larger government deficits increase savings even more when rates are negative, strengthening the Ricardian equivalence effect. The effect of negative interest on the predictions of the life-cycle and permanent-income theories is mixed.

Estimating the effects of legalizing drug e-commerce

With the technological development the e-commerce channel began to spread to all sectors of the economy. In 2020 with the introduction of sanitary and epidemiological restrictions because of COVID-19 pandemic, many countries lifted the ban of drug e-commerce. Such changes are interesting from the point of view of health economics, and the opening of this sales channel significantly reduces transaction costs and increases the physical availability of drugs, especially in regions with low population density. The article attempts to evaluate the effects of legalization of online sales of drugs on price level and the degree of market concentration (the concentration of the 5 largest companies is used as a proxy), and also uses new methods to estimate the effects of legalizing e-commerce on drug markets. High rates of industry and drug market concentration can lead to a noticeable decrease in the availability of goods. Legalizing e-commerce can be seen as a way to reduce market concentration by facilitating market entry for small firms. The effects of lifting the ban on remote drug sales are estimated using regression analysis on panel data, cross-country matching, and synthetic control. Empirical estimates provide an overall picture of the effects of legalizing online drug sales. After allowing remote drug sales market concentration decreases, indicating a reduction in information asymmetry and switching costs. This effect is particularly important for countries with a high proportion of pensioners, for whom the switching costs are noticeably higher ceteris paribus. Allowing distance trade, due to reducing information asymmetry, drug pricing also slows down, that is, in addition to increasing physical accessibility, opening this channel also increases economic accessibility.

COVID-19 and Emergency Rental Assistance: Impact on Rent Arrears, Debt, and the Well-Being of Renters in Philadelphia

The federal government allocated an unprecedented level of funding to develop emergency rental assistance programs to help vulnerable low-income renter households remain housed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using panel data from two waves of applicant surveys joined with administrative data, this article analyzes the impact of Phase 1 of the City of Philadelphia's COVID-19 Emergency Rental Assistance Program and asks how emergency rental assistance affected households in their rent arrears, rent-related debt, and mental health. Analysis shows that receiving emergency rental assistance was associated with lower arrears, a lower probability of rent-related debt, and a lower probability of experiencing frequent debilitating anxiety. The findings suggest that the initial rent relief provided crucial support for households in terms of financial and mental well-being but also underscore that housing affordability challenges that predated the pandemic cannot be addressed by an emergency rental assistance program created in response to a pandemic.

Do the macro and global economic factors drive the nonperforming loans in GCC economies?

PurposeThe current study aims to investigate the determinants of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the GCC economies during the period spanning 2000 to 2018. It also examines whether the worldwide financial crisis of 2007–2008, which brought the issue of non–performing loans to the greater attention of academics and policymakers, had a substantial impact on NPLs in this region.Design/methodology/approachThe sample consists of 53 conventional banks from GCC countries, and the basic data for the study is obtained from various sources such as Bankscope, IMF World Economic Outlook, World Bank and Chicago Board of Options Exchange Market Volatility Index. The estimations were done by dynamic panel data regression modeling using system generalized methods of moments.FindingsThe findings reveal that both, the non-oil real GDP growth rate and inflation have favorable effects on NPLs. On the other hand, domestic credit to the private sector and the volatility index have an adverse effect on NPLs. Furthermore, the period-wise analysis shows that the relevance and significance of the determinants of NPLs vary between the precrisis and postcrisis periods. It is also reflected through the intercept dummy, which is found to be significant, indicating that the financial crisis, as a global economic factor, had a significant impact on NPLs. A number of robustness tests are applied, which indicate that the results are mostly robust and consistent in terms of the significance of the explanatory variables and the direction of their relationship with the dependent variable.Practical implicationsPolicymakers and bank authorities must strive to maintain a healthy economy and implement macroprudential policies to improve the financial stability of banks and reduce credit risk.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is likely the first study that empirically investigates the influence of the financial crisis on NPLs in the context of GCC economies. In addition, the research spans 19 years to produce more conclusive results.

Alcohol Consumption during the Covid-19 Pandemic in India

The study examines the impact of Covid-19-induced economic stressors (such as incomes and job losses) on household alcohol consumption in India. Our analysis, based on eight waves of the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy–Consumer Pyramids Household Survey (CMIE-CPHS) for the period January 2019–August 2021, confirms an increased consumption of alcohol during the pandemic despite supply restrictions imposed by the state. A spurt was witnessed across socioeconomic groups with varying intensities. This confirms the self-medication hypothesis and stress-response-dampening theory that households responded to the pandemic-related economic and psychological shocks by increasing the consumption of alcohol and is more significant for the poor and the marginalised.JEL Codes: D12, C23 [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of Asian & African Studies (Sage Publications, Ltd.) is the property of Sage Publications, Ltd. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)